You are currently viewing Labour overtake Reform in a national poll for first time since 2025

Labour overtake Reform in a national poll for first time since 2025



Andy Burnham of Labour and Nigel Farage of Reform in front of a poll

In a further sign that the public is responding positively to Andy Burnham, Labour has topped Reform in a national poll for the first time since mid-2025:

Can Burnham hold on to this lead? We’ve got serious doubts about that. But for now, things do seem to be shifting in his favour.

The Burnham bounce

As the Independent reported in February, Reform UK pulled ahead of Labour and the Tories in May 2025. Farage’s bunch then held on to that lead for more than a year. This was with multiple pollsters too, including:

BMG, FindOutNow, FocalData, Ipsos, JL Partners, More in Common, Opinium, Survation, TechneUK and YouGov.

Politico’s Poll of Polls (an aggregate of all the pollsters) actually has Reform ahead from April 2025:

Notably, Reform still leads Labour in the aggregate. But there are signs that Farage’s party is on the slide. As we reported, several recent polls have shown Reform losing its lead, even if Labour isn’t always doing better. In some cases, the gap has diminished significantly:

This likely isn’t all down to Burnham, and other factors include:

We say ‘progressive tones’ because that’s all we’re getting from Burnham – vibes and insinuations. As we’ve covered, that doesn’t mean the public won’t respond well – at least for a while. Starmer didn’t just fail to deliver; he failed to inspire. If Burnham can do the latter, he may get something of a honeymoon period before the public starts to ask ‘how come I’m not any better off?‘

Our assumption is that things won’t get materially better under Burnham because we’ve listened to what he’s offering. Like the Greens, we wanted to hear some of the following in his big policy speech; like them, Burnham left us disappointed:

We’ve no doubt all this is why Burnham’s favourability has suffered from his prolonged exposure to the public:

As others have noted, we’ve seen what a Burnham administration looks like in Manchester:

People are hoping that Burnham will make the country more affordable, but his stint in Manchester demonstrated he’s just as likely to turn every city into London.

Same old

Burnham may be more in key than Starmer, but he’s whistling the same tune. And when the public realise that song is Things Can Only Get Better, things are going to take a turn.

Featured image via the Canary

By Willem Moore





Source link

Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,